ACUS11 KWNS 220417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220416
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-220545-

Mesoscale Discussion 2079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO...southwest NE...western KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...

Valid 220416Z - 220545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue with an ongoing
supercell. Trends are being monitored for any storm clustering with
time.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing supercell across northeast CO will continue
to pose a short-term threat for localized hail and severe gusts as
it moves south-southeastward. Recent objective mesoanalyses depict
an 850-mb moisture axis extending southeast from ongoing convection
into northwest KS, and recent VWPs from KGLD indicate a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. These factors may allow for
some increase in storm coverage and clustering (as depicted by some
recent HRRR/RRFS runs), within a favorably unstable (MUCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg) and sufficiently sheared environment. However, the
current isolated nature of the ongoing threat and increasing MLCINH
with time result in uncertainty regarding overnight severe potential downstream.

Some increase in elevated storm coverage has recently been noted
over far southwest NE, and if convection can continue to increase in
coverage later tonight, then steep lapse rates above the surface and
relatively large DCAPE could support modest cold pool generation and
an increasing severe-wind threat, despite increasing near-surface
stability. Local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance will be
possible if trends support an increasing downstream severe threat
overnight.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7JG7KUUfVMBsT8cfpBn1DzguOlW4BYTtgacQkJXbsITVd2jmndwRPUROpy5jJTr9YSiaqjETBUnAKFiQvboTQ2IPRxY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41120338 40850226 40320117 39550048 38840033 38410047
38210148 39000283 39570339 40260368 41120338

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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