ACUS11 KWNS 220133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220132
NEZ000-COZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0832 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the southern Nebraska Panhandle into
northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

Valid 220132Z - 220300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and very large hail
continues across parts of the Nebraska Panhandle this evening. The
severe risk may spread south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 into
northeastern Colorado, and a downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A robust right-moving supercell has recently
intensified in the NE Panhandle as it encounters a maximum in
surface-based buoyancy, driven by a plume of upper 60s dewpoints and
steep deep-layer lapse rates. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear
will continue to support this storm with southward extent, posing a
risk of very large hail (recent reports of baseball-sized hail) and
severe wind gusts. Given the warm/moist air mass downstream into
northeast CO, and the potential for storm mergers amid a gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ, an organized cluster could
persist/spread south of the watch, and trends are being monitored
for a downstream watch.

..Weinman.. 08/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_AHXpjGEkrv1NdTZtr3g5o1Ak3LDcvYYxumGBeAH_Ib9sGuJuD9ZAut9q2O4LYwbpWb3RZMQzIdIaGtqb1FUbpkMU1c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40320342 40790376 41420382 41710358 41830317 41790280
41460222 40550174 40130182 39830243 39820285 40320342

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


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