ACUS11 KWNS 212348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212347
KSZ000-COZ000-220145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of east-central Colorado and west-central
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212347Z - 220145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe wind gusts and
large hail during the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have recently intensified along a
subtle surface boundary and in a zone of enhanced low-level
convergence near a surface low in east-central CO. This activity is
evolving along the eastern periphery of a large-scale ridge, where
around 40 kt of effective shear is promoting convective organization
(including supercells). These storms should continue tracking slowly
southward along a buoyancy gradient, where a deeply mixed PBL will
promote severe wind gusts over the next couple hours. Isolated
instances of large hail will also be possible with the longer-lived
supercell structures.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67mBaEZIa0WcKW7nmvk20kpyK_sIZM25ulmBKhprNcNmg3YNWjc3EdaOta12MJ7tFdPFqic5IWUnsEQJc2-nLQ1zD1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38340362 38880375 39290372 39380350 39350311 39140246
38710195 38000179 37720207 37690273 38000328 38340362

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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