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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2073

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Aug 21 21:39:20 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 212139
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212138
    NEZ000-SDZ000-220015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2073
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0438 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest South Dakota and western
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 212138Z - 220015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
    severe-thunderstorm potential. The primary concerns are large hail
    and severe wind gusts. A watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along a
    SE/NW-oriented confluence axis extending from parts of northwest NE
    toward the Black Hills. This activity is potentially being aided by
    a subtle midlevel impulse cresting the ridge in the northern Plains.
    The UNR 18Z sounding sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates and a
    long/mostly straight hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear) --
    which will support splitting supercell structures and organized
    clusters. The primary concern will be large hail and robust
    outflow/severe wind gusts. Given the subtle large-scale forcing for
    ascent and some lingering low-level inhibition, storm coverage is
    uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored in the near term, and
    a watch issuance is possible.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!62SoYF0e6DKreZvKkDDsY1tLVzIFH9P1yYB2NBCzxAiuZ24tLhcx6iPNSNauXqPy8swck926Gih3g_MDbkOgFH_bgtM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41710107 41290158 41080255 41120337 41460384 41980401
    43100398 43530387 43800363 43880335 43850292 43630206
    43320144 42820100 42110085 41710107

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)