ACUS11 KWNS 212035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212035
IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...north-central and northeast Nevada...northwest
Utah...far southeast Oregon...and southern Idaho.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212035Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for a few severe wind gusts up to 70-80 mph is
expected to increase by mid to late afternoon. A watch is not
expected due to the isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Subtle mid-level disturbances embedded in a moist,
southerly flow regime are contributing to a gradual increase in
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of central and southern
NV. Modification of the 18Z LKN sounding for hotter surface
conditions currently observed over northeast NV into northwest UT
yields MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg atop a 3-4 km deep, well-mixed
boundary layer. As such, thunderstorms are expected to move/develop
north through the region this afternoon into evening with an
associated risk for locally severe wind gusts up to 70-80 mph,
driven by strong evaporational cooling potential in the sub-cloud
layer. Explicit wind gust fields from the latest CAM data continue
to highlight portions of north-central and northeast NV into
southwest ID as a most likely corridor for the strongest gusts to
occur.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jeH1yejZjmPXGqFmCeixLhR4vpc_9L8a6z8fPu78JDcMCZOPkUTWQB38v5EBjg5wuwSI5oiLwSVJ2dVEYFmvyp138A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON 43221740 41011740 40001622 39931493 40041384 40401316
41211270 42481266 43081310 43351414 43621572 43221740

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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