ACUS11 KWNS 212034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212033
LAZ000-MSZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...

Valid 212033Z - 212230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds will continue through
late afternoon across the lower Mississippi River Valley.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery out of southern MS and eastern
LA depicts poorly organized, and largely outflow-dominant,
convection. These cells/clusters have been producing occasionally
strong downbursts with velocity data depicting 40-50 knot outflow
within the lowest 1-2 kft ARL. Additionally, surface stations that
have been impacted by outflow have reported temperature reductions
on the order of 20 F. Given these conditions within the convective
cold pools and weak low-level shear sampled by regional VWPs,
outflow boundaries should become more prominent within the next hour
or so. Boundary collisions downstream across east/southeast LA will
likely promote additional updraft development within a hot and
unstable air mass (characterized by low-level lapse rates
approaching 9 C/km and MLCAPE estimated to be around 2500-3000
J/kg). Intense downbursts will be possible with the more vigorous
updraft pulses as additional convection develops and spreads south
into this air mass over the next few hours. Given the thermodynamic
conditions, embedded swaths of 45-60 mph appear possible within the
strongest downbursts.

..Moore.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7-byl7UhyZpswrOBV-EI6OvDLfZ5zlK5EzZikrbzmQ0utuqYqO8-vPUdEWb6xTTIXW9G3cBWUhkCjOGNhbzZcLDz5Tk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30859220 31719195 32069162 32249124 32259096 32169064
31869029 31359017 30909009 30529019 30369031 30189054
30109085 30119122 30159150 30269183 30499206 30859220

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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