ACUS11 KWNS 211909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211908
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608...

Valid 211908Z - 212115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging downbursts continues across
parts of the Carolinas.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the past couple of hours
has depicted mostly transient, outflow-dominant convection. Despite
the poor organization of the convection thus far, deep/robust
updraft pulses remain evident in echo top and differential
reflectivity imagery. Additionally, occasional strong, to perhaps
severe, downbursts have been noted as the deeper convective cores
collapse. While measured wind gusts have largely remained in the
30-40 mph range, small swaths of 45-55 mph gusts are likely embedded
within the more intense downbursts based on velocity data.

Continued daytime heating has largely eroded any lingering
inhibition, exemplified by the recent uptick in convection along
outflow boundaries and a weak surface trough. Low-level lapse rates
are also steepening to 7.5 to 8 C/km as temperatures warm into the
low to mid 90s across central/north-central SC in between two more
prominent regions of ongoing convection. This will augment the
potential for strong downbursts with a corresponding increase in
wind damage potential. Wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph may occur
over the next couple of hours as additional convection develops
along colliding outflow boundaries within this warm air mass.

..Moore.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-tibppI-qm-g40gsikUTxy6O85d9dR7nkR5k5KfFBgIyRU8iE_CP1iJx-PZ51rIU4pUsiGfd0Ohvew9eyx_CJVqzXA0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33728252 34838165 35208126 35398098 35418059 35327839
35507730 35577676 35417635 35197626 34927635 34757661
34647727 34367771 34067818 33917855 33687923 33597960
33448040 33308116 33198177 33218221 33288243 33458254
33728252

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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