ACUS11 KWNS 211808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211808
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-212015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into the central Gulf
Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211808Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated marginally severe hail this
afternoon and evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front extending
from northern Mississippi westward along the Arkansas/Louisiana
border and into northeastern Texas. This boundary; along with
remnant outflow from overnight convection, the coastal sea breeze,
and a remnant MCV evident in visible satellite imagery across
central Alabama; will serve as a focus for convective initiation
this afternoon amid a hot and humid air mass with temperatures in
the upper-90s F and dewpoints in the mid-70s F. While effective
shear remains generally meager (less than 20 kts per objective
analysis and 12z regional observed soundings), modestly stronger
low-to-mid level flow (20-25 kts sampled by area VWPs), high PW
content (1.75-2.0+ inches), and steepening low-level lapse rates
(8-9+ C/km) will support scattered damaging/severe wind gusts with
water-loaded downbursts. A strongly unstable air mass (MLCAPE
forecast to exceed 3000-3500 J/kg in some areas) may also promote an
instance or two of marginally severe hail with the most robust
cores. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches may be needed in the
next 1-2 hour to cover this potential.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wa-Cbmuy9KU1MJfTibYtZAmwbgBQGbouiQe8o_MvWx5uYfnaHbaCFALEfX4Ysa9hDhlE2f9Lnl7GxN1oxipQcr2jaw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30969495 30609434 29979253 29569112 29559034 29808948
30198815 30488733 30888693 31508697 31828727 31988765
31958839 31909013 31929196 32219331 32559422 32449515
32049539 31619537 30969495

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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