ACUS11 KWNS 211414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211413
NCZ000-SCZ000-211645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Carolina and
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211413Z - 211645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind gusts is
expected to increase by late morning into early afternoon.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
as of 14Z from south through east of Columbia, SC with additional
agitated cumulus observed along a quasi-stationary boundary
extending into eastern NC. The 12z MHX and CHS soundings sampled a
very moist air mass, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in
the mid to upper 70s and precipitable water values of 2.1-2.2
inches, which are contributing to moderate to strong instability
when modified for current surface conditions.

While forcing for ascent attendant to an MCV currently located over
far western NC is expected to remain to the north of the region, the
presence of the surface front and negligible capping in the observed
soundings should allow for a gradual increase in storm coverage and
intensity through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon.
Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, which will limit the
organization and longevity of individual storms. Nonetheless, degree
of instability will support locally intense pulse-type storms with
an associated risk for damaging wind gusts increasing by late
morning into early afternoon.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Lgx6Q8EN5DfHSgVtnNug8e7sa-5iEUtfGCe1W5aNV05fEtlgfSOR4u1EMJTg8Lmo9YYOgoXcPf8wHDvO4n01sDkyYk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35067689 34307856 33607983 33088102 33238156 33708194
34558112 35547918 35977792 35897712 35657692 35067689

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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