ACUS11 KWNS 210419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210418
KSZ000-NEZ000-210515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210418Z - 210515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail (some significant) remains a concern
for a few more hours with an ongoing mature supercell.

DISCUSSION...A relatively long-lived supercell continues to track south-southwest, with a history of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph
measured gusts. Furthermore, MRMS MESH also indicates hail over 2
inches in diameter may be falling with this storm. This supercell is
likely benefiting from locally higher buoyancy (i.e. 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) and 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, MLCINH
will continue to increase through the evening, likely resulting in a
gradual weakening with time. Until this occurs though, a localized
severe threat should persist.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!75Dh2DuRDw4VYBxWEZP80CBu-XDjHLKmZ1KtxxlJwYPrZG6WNb1hxi1cxEaWbTLdJuDwtfvbq695SiQvIkyXNEuhUc0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...

LAT...LON 39690130 40030097 40000043 39820017 39340004 39060022
38780076 38700103 38750124 38970142 39690130

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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