ACUS11 KWNS 210029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210028
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-210200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Nebraska into far northwestern
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210028Z - 210200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind may accompany the stronger
storms this evening. An instance of 2+ inch diameter hail is
possible with any longer-lasting, discrete supercells.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster with transient
supercell characteristics and a history of producing severe gusts
continues to propagate southward along/ahead of a surface trough,
where MLCINH is minimal. Latest MRMS MESH depicts a potential
increase in hail size with an embedded supercell structure.
Furthermore, additional storms also initiating ahead of the surface
trough, along a confluence zone in southwestn NE into far northwest
KS. In this region, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with at
least 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis. The
latest GLD shows an elongated hodograph, indicative of splitting
supercell structures with a continued severe hail/gust threat. When
also considering 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates in place (per
regional 00Z observed soundings), an instance of 2+ inch diameter
hail cannot be ruled out with mature supercells at their peak
intensity.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7NnefxAyvfj0rAqRQdKF4mhed4TIeYx2GnQVADlCzkw3PsFHCy8u0MD77YBnVPXfJzQWS1wbjSSvLfsBHYsSQBuv0Ik$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 39620205 40460141 41500077 41780052 41840007 41649975
41129957 40419958 39799990 39470044 39280113 39260165
39620205

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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