ACUS11 KWNS 210026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210025
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern AL...Middle TN...and far
northeast MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 210025Z - 210300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts should increase over the
next few hours. While a watch is not currently expected, trends will
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving within a zone of
broad low-level confluence extending from parts of Middle/western TN
into far northern MS. Over the next few hours, increasing
large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel wave moving across the lower
OH Valley could support an increase in thunderstorm coverage within
this zone. Ahead of this activity, a warm and very moist PBL (upper
70s to near 80 dewpoints) are yielding a corridor of strong
surface-based buoyancy. While modest deep-layer flow/shear and lack
of a LLJ should tend to limit convective organization, some
strengthening of midlevel northwesterly flow accompanying the
midlevel wave (sampled by upstream VWP) could favor a loosely
organized cluster of storms. If this evolution occurs, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary concern. While a gradual increase in
nocturnal static stability and the modest deep-layer shear may
temper the overall severe risk, convective trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/21/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!40Woqg4A4K36ZqF0rGMJSALzakDlU6A63-0rTRS9ObRVs1tv9JiH_GxUXvjeMFboEHrZ2Y0-nD4LWmSbi-ky7LREaoQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34468820 34748839 35028832 35358815 35568778 35688713
35588634 35398583 35038562 34648557 34228586 34058643
34028727 34168781 34468820

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)