ACUS11 KWNS 202308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202307
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast OK...southwest AR...and far
northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 202307Z - 210130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to
locally damaging wind gusts for the next few hours. A watch is not
currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along a
stationary boundary draped across southeast OK and southwest AR.
Along/south of the boundary, temperatures have warmed to near 105 F
amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- resulting in a strongly unstable
air mass. This activity is largely displaced from a midlevel trough
and enhanced flow aloft moving across the lower OH Valley, which
should tend to reduce overall convective organization. Nevertheless,
around 25 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow oriented perpendicular
to the stationary boundary and evolving cluster of storms could
support a loosely organized cluster capable of producing locally
damaging wind gusts for the next few hours.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6lmcSJaX3rDP7YS-agjT8UaH03GUjH70vcjarI9087ERrGYeGOg8Bm_rjmMfCt_WcmI7bzW4TsgMD-2xVCltqU1KyIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 33729526 34039560 34349570 34669553 34799505 34629348
34429306 34089284 33579283 33249314 33179369 33299431
33729526

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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