ACUS11 KWNS 202034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202033
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-202230-
Mesoscale Discussion 2055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas into northern Mississippi and
northern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 202033Z - 202230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms will be capable of primarily damaging
downburst winds and perhaps isolated large hail. A watch is possible
depending on convective trends over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are in the process of
developing within parts of the Mid-South into the Southeast. The
highest coverage of storms will likely occur ahead of a weak
perturbation in southern Arkansas and where temperatures have
reached the upper 90s F. Rich surface moisture/large PWAT values and
steeper than typical mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for
damaging downburst winds and perhaps isolated large hail. A greater
localized wind threat may emerge as storm outflows congeal amid a
weakly sheared environment. Cooler air is evident farther east where
outflow continues to modify. Storm coverage there is less certain. A
watch is possible for portions of these regions depending on
convective trends the remainder of this afternoon.
..Wendt/Smith.. 08/20/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9YSS75myUIIVZHYw-xKcAbsXejYwqvj8i3aDgmWmoMD0XtY6K66O89YmUozHpZWwXRC0iCfMFPOZMFAfY0EczuwTvc0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33139204 33659228 34059186 34538920 34508803 34068768
33448777 33148825 33139204
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)