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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2053

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 19:50:20 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 201950
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201949
    NEZ000-SDZ000-202145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2053
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Areas affected...Central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 201949Z - 202145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may produce large hail
    and severe winds this afternoon. Limited coverage may preclude watch
    issuance, though trends will be monitored through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have recently initiated within
    Cherry County, NE this afternoon along a weak surface trough.
    Moisture return continues into the central Plains along the western
    flank of a surface high. Dewpoints have generally held in the
    low/mid 60s F despite the strong heating/mixing. Given the mid-level
    height rises that are occurring, storm coverage/longevity is in
    question. With around 40 kt of effective shear and modestly steep
    mid-level lapse rates on the 18Z LBF sounding, mature/sustained
    storms would likely be supercellular and capable of large hail (up
    to around 2 in.) and severe wind gusts. It is not clear whether a
    watch will be needed this afternoon given potentially isolated
    coverage. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9rTZ6YzSysyDNW1_5nknJBoLWN9PdHMoXCCNG6cEN9kGEqzM9jZ_iCaSjLkX_r4j4DATW6ioo7RNhl887F12jnPzxaI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 43139805 42499817 41529916 40850019 40810087 40940105
    41500106 41960085 43099932 43309848 43139805

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)