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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2050

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Aug 20 06:50:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 200650
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200649
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2050
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...northern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western and Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602...603...

    Valid 200649Z - 200815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602, 603
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and an isolated tornado
    continues within the watch areas. A local watch extension in time
    may be needed as the scheduled expiration of Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 602 at 3 am approaches.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue in a west-east
    zone within a region of modest warm advection at 0645z. Earlier
    reports of measured severe gusts and damage have been received
    across western Kentucky. Latest mesoanalysis depicted
    moderate/strong elevated buoyancy and 35-45 kts of westerly
    effective shear, supporting continued updraft organization and
    severe potential. In the near-term, the increase in storm coverage
    observed on regional radars and related convective overturning
    should result in the severe potential focusing on southern portions
    of WW 602, while continuing across WW 603. A local watch extension
    in time may ultimately be necessary across southern portions of WW
    602 prior to the scheduled 3 am CDT expiration.

    ..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5W9JLI3OB1GUaC3CA21vJHOTSwQYIWNtaIjiluhvbR4iq-CmsEri6IYMKm2lASflDAazEevKMcdzIJ11cKxD0TNm4tg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

    LAT...LON 37449049 37308893 37248756 36938656 36588622 36178620
    35908666 35828754 35818832 35908935 35929012 36039062
    36279083 37009084 37449049

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)