ACUS11 KWNS 200405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200404
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Discussion 2049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri into far northern
Arkansas...far southern Illinois...western Kentucky...northwestern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602...

Valid 200404Z - 200530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue to pose a severe
hail threat for several more hours. A tornado also cannot be ruled
out with cells on the southern periphery of the ongoing thunderstorm
cluster.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster, with occasional transient
supercells, continues to progress eastward over southern MO into far
northern AR and far southern IL. MRMS MESH continues to indicate
possible brief instances of severe hail accompanying some of the
stronger storms within this cluster. Given the intensification of a
low-level jet atop a decouple boundary layer, elevated buoyancy
should continue to be advected to and ahead of the cluster, yielding
2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE amid 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. As
such, the threat for severe hail will continue with the stronger
storms. While these storms should remain largely elevated, a cell or
two could manage to become surface based over the next hour or so
and pose a sparse tornado risk. However, this scenario appears far
less likely than that for elevated, severe-hail-producing storms.

Elevated buoyancy continues to be advected into the TN Valley area,
so an eastward extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 may be
needed.

..Squitieri.. 08/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Tbv2u8s7sR3e0sSILjY2BWpL-q6xhBTABcjLVBOXEBcCb8G4gp6l5kKgFxNX6p6Co5MCcaaa4IufkNBioEzn39kvzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37319247 37468992 37458822 37088758 36358757 35968817
35888935 35979099 36059187 36179241 37319247

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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