ACUS11 KWNS 200200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200200
AZZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601...

Valid 200200Z - 200400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential continues within WW601.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms are ongoing across WW601
from Tuscon to just west of the White Mountains in Apache/Navajo
County. A broad outflow boundary exists from central Apache County
southward across Greenlee/Graham Counties. Surface observations have
recorded gusts around 45 mph with this feature as it spreads west
and south with occasional new development along its leading edge. It
seems likely this feature will continue to move west and south this
evening eventually moving into the Phoenix Metro. Additional outflow
may also develop from the south near Tuscon. A recent observed gust
around 57 mph was reported from the Tuscon Airport.

The 00z sounding from PHX shows a deeply mixed profiles with very
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate instability, with MLCAPE
around 1700 J/kg. Additionally, temperatures are around 105-110 F.
As storms continue along outflows moving into this hot and deeply
mixed air mass, it is likely that the damaging wind potential will
increase through the evening both along and ahead of the outflow and
with additional thunderstorms.

..Thornton.. 08/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_9MAklAbCPW_FVPHBTo-wyRH-anUIsJrPf8coWu3dPvA4XaKZSEqU62T-nPlzqnjHO0Ll9qLzG-uRVGwoxzgCCmQWQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 33910963 34330980 34470997 34491008 34511029 34481136
33911208 33361238 32981257 32661265 32011252 31821240
31461152 31431070 31461006 31470969 31550935 31730915
31990909 32220919 32650948 33910963

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)