ACUS11 KWNS 192159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192159
NMZ000-COZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2046
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico...eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192159Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage along
the high terrain across eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado this
afternoon. This activity will slowly spread into the lower plains
through the afternoon and evening.

Deep layer shear for organization is best across eastern Colorado,
with weaker shear across eastern New Mexico. The most favorable
instability also resides across eastern Colorado. A few isolated
supercells with large hail will be possible initially. Large dew
point depressions and steep low level lapse rates will likely lead
to outflow dominate storms and more of a threat for strong to severe
wind. Overall, this threat should remain too localized for watch
issuance.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!93Nv6DT8ilodlDVOweVq8X7sp50l6UjE9Rz_jfdL1UDd915ciBJpB_IL6gGHsaXsofG93Iua2Q60i4EFYNgnUUBuZME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36370573 37240570 37910574 38940554 39250532 39390496
39380460 38850406 37810371 36260398 35610422 34830460
34460531 34540555 34790578 35000596 36370573

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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