ACUS11 KWNS 192008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192008
NMZ000-AZZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192008Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to slowly increase and
spread westward off the higher terrain through 2-4 PM MST. A severe
weather watch may be needed at some point, once storms begin to
consolidate into an evolving cluster, but this may not be until
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing across much of
central and southern Arizona, within a seasonably moist air mass
boosted by a recent surge from the Gulf of California. Latest
objective analysis indicates that strongest potential instability
has become focused to immediate southwest and west of the higher
terrain of east central into southeastern Arizona, where inhibition
has been eroding most appreciably. As this continues over the next
few hours, a slow propagation off the higher terrain straddling the
southern Arizona/New Mexico border may commence by 21-23Z, with
strong downbursts posing increasing potential for strong to severe
surface gusts within a strongly heated and deep mixed
boundary-layer. Increasing thunderstorm development closer to the
southeastern Arizona international border may also begin to impact
the Tucson vicinity.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-lPFkIhzMqzpeg3HcZdgn-CQDdDu9mp2iNrlJEbHymOBXSB3AKJ1pvGh7oWwTXZaJXVxjd2kceXxDUQlzbz0Un1HNs0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34381124 33891042 33451018 32550860 31370931 31091055
31251136 31741145 32811055 34071176 34381124

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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