ACUS11 KWNS 191931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191930
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Northwestern Missouri into far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 191930Z - 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Continued eastward progress of an organized bowing segment
and potential supercells ahead of the linear convection will pose a
threat for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and possibly a
brief tornado. A watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating has occurred in between areas of
cloud cover in northern Missouri and adjacent northeast Kansas and
far southern Iowa. In southeastern Nebraska a small bowing segment
with a history of wind damage and measured severe wind gusts will
generally move into this relatively more favorable zone. Effective
shear of 45-50 kt will continue to promote storm organization. As
the bowing segment takes a more easterly track into more buoyant
air, the line will be more orthogonal to the deep-layer shear.
Additionally, a supercell or two is evident near the Missouri river.
These storms would be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado. A watch will likely be needed.

..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9PMkg93qAZQqinIfAD3oQeHcA8HrIL7OamRxol0Mn5sEAYugPXVQTfhbpxq3_CmP_6LJicOWx2K6QBFsWvOPuIQ7-hs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39599484 39909559 40409581 40759542 40759415 40499294
39969276 39589322 39509373 39599484

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)