ACUS11 KWNS 191929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191929
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern Mississippi into southern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191929Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is likely through 5-7
PM CDT, accompanied by localized damaging downbursts and at least a
bit more widespread strong, but generally sub-severe, wind gusts.
Due to the disorganized and generally localized nature of the more
intense gusts, a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated,
but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for thunderstorm development remains unclear,
but perhaps aided by weak near-surface warm advection, initiation of
widely scattered thunderstorms appears underway within a broadly
confluent low-level regime across eastern Mississippi into southern
Alabama. This is occurring in the presence of light (10 kt or less) north-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, but thermodynamic profiles characterized by a strongly heated, seasonably high moisture content
boundary layer, with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates of
potential wet-bulb temperature.

Heavy precipitation loading, coupled with evaporative cooling, may
contribute to localized damaging downbursts in the initially more
widely scattered strongest storms. Gradually,
colliding/intersecting outflow may contribute to increasing
thunderstorm development with continuing potential for strong
surface gusts into early evening.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9uIGfbmbgQaK3-6OtRMi0Zz_Y2JS7CqLfVIcelx71N4li3DLBzr7Et6PuJ-k-fLbkJM963AaVS_smRQ3b5XQMOZSS5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33788926 33668742 31508581 30828680 31098831 32058932
33008981 33788926

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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