ACUS11 KWNS 191726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191726
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of south central/southeastern Nebraska
adjacent southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599...

Valid 191726Z - 191930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 599
continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms may continue to become less
organized and weaken, but strong thunderstorm development posing a
risk for severe hail and wind may continue into the 2-4 PM CDT time
frame.

DISCUSSION...A broader cyclonic vortex has evolved from an initial
supercell structure over the past couple of hours, with stronger
associated thunderstorm development maintaining a modest
south-southeastward propagation. Subsequent evolution of this
cluster remains uncertain, as latest Rapid Refresh continues to
indicate weakening of initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection
supporting forcing for ascent over the next couple of hours. As
this occurs, increasing mid-level inhibition and less unstable
inflow may contribute to diminishing convection on the
south/southwestern flank of the cluster.

A corridor of stronger destabilization (including CAPE on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg) has evolved downstream of the ongoing cluster, near/southwest of Omaha and south of I-80 into southwestern Iowa.
This appears focused near the northern periphery of the elevated
mixed-layer, as roughly depicted by the thermal gradient around 700
mb. This may shift southward a bit with continuing progression of
the MCV within west-northwesterly mean flow, with forcing associated
with the MCV and/or, perhaps, the associated surface cold pool
supporting renewed convective development through 19-21Z.

..Kerr.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-otmkwfdYNcn3bo-Drx8TbQoe0fQ1-AWg1Oth4nwmstjlf4NKY9ZjukBEajg33pqVQayX1uaFmNgYV-HxjQDgQmfmhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 41289685 41239601 41189518 40689480 40109513 40089624
40109685 40339771 40459825 40729884 41169887 41039817
41289685

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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