ACUS11 KWNS 190622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190622
KSZ000-COZ000-190745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast and east-central Colorado...western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190622Z - 190745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible during
the early morning hours posing a risk for damaging gusts and severe
hail. Convective trends will be monitored and a watch is possible
should signs of sufficient severe storm coverage become clearer.

DISCUSSION...Scattered clusters of strong, occasionally severe,
storms were in progress across northeast CO at 0615z with a report
of 64 mph at Akron. These storms were located within a seasonably
strong belt of west-northwesterly mid-level flow and around 40 kts
of westerly effective shear. The downstream thermodynamic
environment becomes progressively more unstable with eastward extent
with MUCAPE averaging 2000 J/kg, locally higher, across western KS.

Latest short-range guidance suggests these elevated clusters of
storms will continue moving southeast into western KS during the
pre-dawn hours with isolated instances of strong/severe gusts and
hail possible. It remains unclear whether the severe storm coverage
would warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, however convective trends
will continue to be monitored, and a watch is possible should
short-term trends suggest more than isolated coverage.

..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!58KYKbq7ZU79C_K6BVhMoX8KTcm6h_DunHjLBF2TcWSB-MsDWLEIZNKjoWOQGmOlr5urFnhOyAuQkQIPtG0CSN25GuY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39870331 39960228 39559988 38899962 38389973 38080001
37970158 38110317 38400404 39270413 39870331

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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