ACUS11 KWNS 190047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190046
MOZ000-KSZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern and northeastern Kansas into
western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 190046Z - 190315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase through the evening and
early overnight hours, accompanied by a risk of severe hail and
perhaps a few severe gusts. If convective trends continue to
indicate an increase in storm coverage, a WW issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to develop ahead
of a surface low, at the terminus region of a geostrophic low-level
flow regime. Here, 850 mb frontogenesis/convergence and warm-air
advection are maximized, likely resulting the intensifying storms.
Though the 00Z mesoanalysis depicts appreciable MLCINH over
northeast KS into western MO, isentropic lift should support the
increase in elevated convection above the inhibition layer, where
storms may take advantage of available instability (e.g. 7.5-9 C/km
mid-level lapse rates per 00Z regional observed soundings). 3000
J/kg MLCAPE amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear will support a mix
of multicells and supercells tonight, with severe hail and wind the
main threats. An instance or two of 2+ inch hail cannot be ruled
out. A WW issuance may be needed pending favorable trends in greater
storm coverage.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!69-iZm6P_mz7OVpt93A828orO7mUqdfYwNfbDlGPsdkEchRaaVlxnZVM7CC7Xcc9JLP9euGn7faJzmiGxWlY4bI0GnU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39259832 39489729 39579572 39459427 39109349 38709350
38469404 38449501 38459598 38539681 38609756 38709806
39259832

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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