ACUS11 KWNS 182152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182152
MIZ000-WIZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...northern lower Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182152Z - 182345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind will be possible with
isolated supercells this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is shifting eastward across Lake
Michigan this evening. Downstream, the air mass is only marginally
unstable, with MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Deep layer flow is
seasonably strong, with deep layer shear 35-45 kts across the
northern lower Michigan Peninsula. RAOB profiles from APX (Gaylord,
MI) shows a long straight hodograph, which would be supportive of
splitting supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind.
Damaging wind potential may be further supported by steep low level
lapse rates (around 8 C/km). There remains some uncertainty with how
long supercells will be sustained, given the only marginally
favorable thermodynamics. This area will be monitored for watch
potential.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_18PNsvyp69NzBNzIs2-tOLwXsuDbNaHp8lGQY2YSBplgSXsuU1XI1q6aI7TDs-3tmdcGsAqfIWXiYsSK_EdPloglKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

LAT...LON 44878784 45708653 46048525 46048401 45588292 45038228
44148251 43428347 43398547 43448661 43768773 44278801
44878784

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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