ACUS11 KWNS 182020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182020
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Central/eastern Gulf Coast into North Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182020Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon. A
watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed along the Gulf
breeze front within a very moist (low 70s F dewpoints), high PWAT
(2-2.5 in.) airmass. 12Z/18Z observed soundings from the region
showed poor mid-level lapse rates. This, and very weak shear, will
keep storms unorganized. However, water-loaded downdrafts may
produce locally damaging winds with low-level lapse having steepened substantially this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-z8DfKXjLt5uPzNUP46Yj6BjJCY76YA5-bWcVok3fK4vGXZ2g8uacDpkYzcBVTVii8hcj0Y6gmHyAUnwr8tGgCGBvWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30638949 30869014 31808990 32338818 31658615 31078521
30788268 30668159 30388133 29548123 29618318 30238602
30638949

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)