ACUS11 KWNS 180226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180225
NEZ000-SDZ000-180330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592...594...

Valid 180225Z - 180330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592, 594
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts/hail remains possible with supercell
structures, and a tornado may still occur with an intense supercell
over Valley County. If storms in northern Nebraska can grow upscale
into an MCS, an organized wind swath may occur.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to progress across central
and northern NE with a history of severe gusts and occasional large
hail. An intense right-moving supercell over Valley County, NE has
also demonstrated periods of low-level rotation and remains capable
of producing a tornado. In the immediate term, severe wind and hail
(some significant) remains possible with any mature supercell
structure given 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and over 40 kts of effective bulk
shear in place. KLNX radar trends show several supercell structures
and accompanying outflow boundaries merging over central and
northern NE. This is where several of the latest HRRR runs have also
depicted upscale growth into a cold-pool-driven MCS. If this trend
continues, an organized swath of strong to severe gusts may manifest
over central into eastern NE over the next few hours. However,
MLCINH will continue to increase through the evening. The current
thinking is that storms that fail to grow upscale over the next few
hours may begin to diminish with boundary-layer decoupling.

..Squitieri.. 08/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5gdv1y7h_-IWJtYiCVpTi91sh93vVYBH8yMU2mkM0vvNpqkt9vHO4B3KFvhwCYSJk2rzcLt1yc_L6brqyqFP__8kXqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 41620144 42470125 42970111 43120095 43080042 42819775
42479732 41789732 41089775 40669905 40490028 40550091
41000128 41620144

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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