ACUS11 KWNS 180103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180102
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-180200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...much of central and northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592...

Valid 180102Z - 180200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and hail should continue to accompany
ongoing supercells for at least a few more hours. Some supercells
may exit the eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are in progress across much of
central and northern NE, with a severe-wind producing supercell also
poised to cross into Cherry County, NE from SD. The 00Z LBF observed
sounding showed minimal capping in place, with near 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates overspreading a well-mixed boundary layer amid an
elongated straight hodograph (and 30+ kts of effective bulk shear).
These conditions will support continued severe wind/hail potential
for at least a few more hours, until boundary layer stabilization
sets in. An instance of 2+ inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust
cannot be ruled out. Some of the latest HRRR runs also depict
upscale growth into an MCS in central NE. However, confidence in
this scenario remains uncertain given the resistance of storms to
grow upscale thus far. Some of the supercells in central NE are
splitting and approaching counties outside of the ongoing Severe
Thunderstorm Watch. A WW issuance may be needed farther to the east
if confidence increases in a longer-term severe threat for eastern
NE.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_7DlT0LFFMizx2uDle44k_VGSPTE2CKkxWTwtBgGAHySHj37AVx7dNJcf-F472U1PV5dpJL2vJ6fnMIoki6g5zQ-nGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42940283 42989835 42769713 42419676 42099681 41179824
40729950 40590054 40570116 40640160 40950208 42940283

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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