ACUS11 KWNS 180017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180016
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 180016Z - 180145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger
storms that manage to intensify and become sustained. A WW issuance
is possible pending favorable intensification trends.

DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells and multicells continue to track
across central SD with a history of producing measured severe gusts.
MRMS mosaic radar trends suggest that some weakening of the ongoing
storms has taken place over the past hour or so, casting some
uncertainty to the long-term severe potential. Nonetheless, these
storms are preceded by a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment. The 00Z ABR observed sounding depicted a buoyant
airmass and no MLCINH, with nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid an
elongated hodograph with over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. The
00Z mesoanalysis also depicted similar conditions present across
most of eastern SD. Such conditions would support a continued severe
gust threat into the evening hours. As such, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the possibility of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qCnCFrjfasFcoaavnqRYQAeljHniBv2ZlIIccJrTMEyfg9QiXxDH9QlaWd-xv4NheHjoQfaX6lvZglar9lhFAqzKzE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON 43129660 42939704 42869789 43039896 43349940 44209867
44879787 45709747 45879706 45769658 45359643 44609622
43769628 43129660

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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