ACUS11 KWNS 172230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172229
NEZ000-172330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of western into central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 172229Z - 172330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail and wind is increasing across
portions of western and central Nebraska. A WW issuance will be
issued soon.

DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is approaching NE from extreme
southwestern SD, with additional storms developing along the higher
terrain along the NE/CO border. The storms in far northwestern NE
are traversing a diffuse baroclinic boundary, where relatively
richer moisture (i.e. mid 60s F surface dewpoints) is in place. 22Z mesoanalysis also depicts 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
overspreading this moisture, yielding 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Furthermore, a 500 mb mid-level impulse is glancing the region to
the north, encouraging modest upper support and 45 kts of effective
bulk shear. The current thinking is that supercell development may
continue across western and central NE this evening.

Storms closer to the NE/CO border are overspreading a drier, mixed
boundary layer, casting some uncertainty to their longevity given
weaker forcing farther south. However, the storms traversing the
aforementioned boundary/richer moisture will have the best chance at maintaining intensity and producing severe gusts as well as large
hail (a stone or two of which could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely given increasing storm coverage
and intensity.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_kTjrvf1kd5aDEqMywHGRu_DHVv8v9CCaOAWSaRMn5vscL8HundyP3-1PRHyQEzVIGjAZL-mBgSnDP-E4My3Usn7ZiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 42890403 42910176 42580009 42159926 41429916 41199935
41039990 41070124 41040305 41260363 42890403

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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