ACUS11 KWNS 172138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172137
MTZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172137Z - 172300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few brief instances of severe gusts or large hail may
occur with the stronger, sustained storms through the evening hours.
A WW issuance is not expected given the anticipated isolated nature
of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and a supercell have developed
ahead and behind a southward-sagging surface cold front over central
and eastern MT, which is being overspread by a 300 mb jet streak and
500 mb impulse. Given the aforementioned upper support, these storms
are expected to persist into the evening. 21Z mesoanalysis shows
steep tropospheric lapse rates in place, along with 40+ kts of
effective bulk shear. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that severe
hail may already be falling with some of these storms, and the
aforementioned instability/vertical wind shear should support
continued severe wind/hail potential for at least a few hours. Total
buoyancy is limited however, so the severe threat should remain on
the sparse end, with a WW issuance currently not expected.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4nkkBL_eWfQR0XJ6ww7fwhPMY6GfPaN5QRIN7FFG40LuK4iLStJGHkbaTSIvfuP4eO8GNfVUU7DUghVOb4RiNvTI01w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46701070 47660966 48100847 48070680 47500544 46610488
45910472 45560490 45260548 45040695 45140816 45480915
46181049 46701070

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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