ACUS11 KWNS 171750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171749
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-171945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Kentucky...southwestern Virginia...eastern Tennessee and adjacent portions of western North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171749Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for localized damaging downbursts will gradually
increase with increasing thunderstorm development through 5-6 PM
EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently begun to develop and
intensify in a small cluster south of a remnant MCV now migrating east-southeastward across eastern Kentucky. This appears embedded
within modest west-southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow on the
order of 20-25 kt, but Rapid-Refresh output and VWP data suggest a
belt of flow on the order of 30-40 in the 700-500 mb layer to the
south of the MCV.

As a seasonably moist boundary layer continues to approach 90F ahead
of ongoing storms, and ahead of a weak, convectively generated or
augmented front trailing to the southwest of the MCV, boundary-layer destabilization will probably support further intensification and
upscale growth of ongoing storms, as well as increasing new storm
development into the western slopes of the Appalachians. Aided by thermodynamic profiles with modestly steep lower to mid-tropospheric
lapse rates of temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature,
potential for localized damaging downbursts may increase through
20-21Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4doeFFHYspOU-3vNnuJYHXdRcxLFggtJuqpTSQRZzyOAL6GNS39Q3nbtplCg_O2Y4rFG-NxCcF-_PuGiblzh6uRAIyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON 37588245 37318078 36428137 35538340 35208470 35868574
36878356 37588245

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)