ACUS11 KWNS 161713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161712
ILZ000-MOZ000-161845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...west-central into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161712Z - 161845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts are possible for the next 1-2
hours. A watch is not currently anticipated due to the limited areal
coverage.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently intensified over Pike
County, IL, on the southern flank of a long-lived convective system.
Latest objective analysis suggests that a narrow corridor of
moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) has developed
immediately ahead of the storm. However, earlier storms in the St.
Louis vicinity have at least temporarily stabilized the air mass
from east-central MO into southwest IL, which may limit a
longer-duration severe weather threat with the above-mentioned
storm. As such, a watch is not currently expected. However, KLSX
does show some base velocity enhancement, suggesting the potential
for locally damaging wind gusts in the near term.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5lZIG2xRMGIJj9SHBvOCinCUdKMW8RmEKqJDUTeKl_pk-x6sBjiVrA1XEpErvCQKVyxxVW9QFZi4zM37Edzr13Xu2K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40189126 40639118 40578986 40228891 39658895 39408948
39359014 39759136 40189126

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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