ACUS11 KWNS 162301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162300
VAZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of far south-central Pennsylvania into Maryland...D.C....and northern and central Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588...

Valid 162300Z - 170000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur with ongoing storms over
the next few hours. The severe threat should remain relatively more
isolated.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cold-pool-driven MCS, with a
history of numerous damaging gusts, is cresting the Blue Ridge
Mountains and is poised to approach the Chesapeake Bay over the next
few hours. Surface temperatures remain in the 80s F, with low-level
lapse rates still around 7 C/km per 22Z mesoanalysis. Nonetheless,
nocturnal cooling will begin soon along the East Coast, which will
further reduce instability. In the near-term a few damaging gusts
remain possible with storms along the leading edge of a cold pool.
The best chance for a damaging or even severe gust will be with
storms propagating toward central VA, where boundary-layer
instability is strongest.

..Squitieri.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5p7IOvf8eaPEk64RUVD2pqg8EqLixqYG9PVnFuqIPSuUrYkaLzztuM_izmVI6ZvMCDk-EA3nJmRlU9cwSXa0AXwRN0c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37487868 39777754 40287726 40407699 40277675 39727666
39057657 38187646 37577654 37277683 37187737 37237826
37487868

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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