ACUS11 KWNS 161556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161556
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-161700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania
and northwest West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161556Z - 161700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase by
early to mid afternoon with damaging wind gusts being the primary
hazard. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of an MCV moving through far southeast lower MI,
clusters of thunderstorms have persisted this morning over northwest
into west-central OH. Downstream from that convection, a corridor of
relatively fewer clouds should allow for stronger daytime heating to
occur this afternoon. When coupled with boundary-layer dew points in
the low to mid-70s F, daytime heating is expected to erode remaining
convective inhibition, with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500+ J/kg.
That destabilization process should allow the ongoing storms to
intensify by early to mid afternoon from eastern OH into western PA
and northwest WV.

The current IND VWP is sampling a belt of 30-40 kt westerly winds in
the 1-5 km layer, which will conditionally support cold pool
organization with an attendant damaging wind risk. A brief tornado
is possible, though the veered low-level winds are expected to limit
the magnitude of low-level shear and a resultant greater risk.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BDX6m9vOsmXEgFX5mauFxnFui_vdIztgvIKJEivMdi6JqfzTCcyUuvlFBHM-Rf6jXm0m4JaKHVDXytK96rXCP2g6tA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39898319 40828254 40988120 41168040 41067972 40197965
39468033 38938117 38888214 38988304 39898319

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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