ACUS11 KWNS 161929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161928
MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...the Maryland and West
Virginia Panhandles...and northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161928Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging
wind gusts is expected to increase late this afternoon into evening.
A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an MCV moving from south-central into
southeast PA, clouds are gradually clearing, allowing for increased
diabatic heating this afternoon. When coupled with a moist boundary
layer characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to
mid 70s F, latest objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg with decreasing convective inhibition. Additional air mass
destabilization is expected through the remainder of the afternoon,
allowing ongoing QLCSs to spread east into the discussion area.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with the most intense
storms, especially in the vicinity of any embedded bowing structures
that may persist. A brief tornado or two is possible in areas that
can maintain more of a southerly wind component, where low-level
shear is locally enhanced.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ufZCIAVWILa5OtBGRmTtnE6I2JZs15ryVktUHWbFYHplFypEJMNOkAKLtPghA9wBcPdsqprVFNvqHe074v6jiQGdbs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...

LAT...LON 38357955 38947931 39407927 40267895 40477848 40397801
39307761 38237782 37877812 37537857 37497918 37897993
38357955

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)