ACUS11 KWNS 162012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162011
ILZ000-MOZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...central and southern Missouri into southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162011Z - 162215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging
wind gusts is expected to increase across the area late this
afternoon into evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations indicate a
couple of boundaries remnant from earlier storms located over the
region as of 20Z. Objective analysis shows, and visible satellite
confirms residual capping over northeast and east-central MO into
adjacent west-central and southwest IL. To the south of those areas
over central and southern MO, temperatures have warmed to around 100
F with considerably more boundary-layer-based cumulus development,
coincident with an uncapped environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg. That area resides to the south of the stronger forcing for
ascent and associated, stronger mid-level flow related to an MCV
moving along the IA-MO border.

Variability exists across the latest CAM guidance and time-lagged
ensembles in specific details regarding the preferred location(s)
for storm development later this afternoon. In general, there is a
signal for eventual upscale growth of initial more discrete storms
into an MCS, which tracks into southern IL this evening. Given the
presence of a hot, well-mixed boundary layer already in place across
central and southern MO, the setup appears favorable for at least
isolated damaging wind gusts with the most intense storms. A more
concentrated area of damaging wind potential may materialize this
evening should storms merge into an MCS along a coalescing cold
pool. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch
issuance.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6PCE4Su01fVae8F-DqxUYpK9g6zODvS9Og3DI6xQ6JD-0Ue-rGx9SqsO9SpZfl0R7w8-jW5n0wwy5Z85vq_t48LnwfI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37769388 38189411 38729359 39219213 39219124 39339005
39088955 38198923 37698931 37078993 37019147 37179255
37429339 37769388

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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