ACUS11 KWNS 162231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162231
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

Valid 162231Z - 170000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible over the next few hours.
The best chance for severe storms will be with storms moving along
the leading edge of outflow from earlier storms.

DISCUSSION...Multicell storms continue to propagate southeastward
amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, supported mainly by 7-7.5 C/km
boundary-layer lapse rates and 70s F surface dewpoints. These
favorable thermodynamic conditions are prevalent along and south of
an outflow boundary left behind by earlier thunderstorms. Storms
traversing this boundary will have the best chance for producing a
damaging or severe gust, and a brief tornado cannot be completely
ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8m6LFQ3wAs4gOoErWT8hFLreww_cfrZZx_HYVJUxz8K5I7QyUGXq1vEYoLRPbffWDeQm9CkF55sWH89d1UKtgce25HI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 39328255 38948090 38438016 37978020 37558051 37488105
37678195 37898253 38098298 38358317 39328255

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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