ACUS11 KWNS 162200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162200
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana into southwestern Ohio
and northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589...

Valid 162200Z - 162300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts (a couple of which may be severe) remain
possible with an ongoing thunderstorm cluster over the next few
hours. Storms may progress beyond the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 589, which may require a new watch issuance downstream.

DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to rapidly progress
southeastward at around 45-50 kts across central and southern IN.
While wind damage/gust reports have not recently been received, the
MCS is preceded by 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of effective
bulk shear. While the deep-layer shear is relatively weak, the
well-established cold pool with this MCS continues to propagate
along a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, possibly supporting
tilting of modest localized horizontal vorticity in place. Assuming
this is the case, it is plausible that the MCS may maintain
intensity for at least a few more hours. Should this occur, the MCS
will propagate past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 with
a damaging/severe gust threat. If this scenario becomes more
apparent, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be considered.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6lIf7RIKOh2pY4vf_qQWB3ywF4MRCtG_5epvTJZ-S9R7s-Qq28UIlDTGuSg8aeWa3h2O-Ksz3UoHg7IhlBempGfcSvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 39718689 39408418 39028326 38618292 38228297 38038353
37988450 38118537 38348608 38508653 38618687 38828710
39718689

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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