ACUS11 KWNS 161834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161833
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161833Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Colorado Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity this afternoon,
bringing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts to portions
of the central High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Aided by strong diurnal heating and easterly, upslope
flow with dewpoints near 60 F, widely scattered thunderstorm
formation is expected this afternoon along the CO Front Range and
Raton Mesa vicinity of the central High Plains, with some lightning
activity already noted within deeper updrafts as of 1830 UTC. Around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE (increasing to 2000 J/kg locally by peak heating
this afternoon) and 25-35+ kts of effective shear amid modestly
strong westerly flow aloft will aid in the organization of updrafts
and should support at least a couple of supercells. These storms
will pose a risk for primarily large hail owing to the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7-7.5 C/km, with a few
damaging/severe wind gusts also possible. A more
outflow-dominant/cluster storm mode, and proportionally greater
damaging/severe wind gust risk, should be increasingly favored with
southward extent as objective analysis indicates effective shear
decreases to 20-25 kts across southeastern Colorado and areas
farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for at
least a portion of the discussion area to cover these threats.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7t-pBUBAfZHZnvRKSwf6qkvhkZ9W7TEkxpvJLj5JfX0yuUW9Qwo2eGti3Oje8wW_X8916goO643AfdfslsAIGS9jxVY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36360306 36520375 37020458 38040506 39210506 40850486
41200469 41390422 41370377 41270341 41050317 40610307
39480299 38140279 37250256 36900249 36600252 36390280
36360306

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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