ACUS11 KWNS 161828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161828
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1997
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western and
northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

Valid 161828Z - 162030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging wind gusts is expected to
spread east across the watch area through the remainder of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS with two distinct bowing segments has evolved
over eastern OH as of 1815Z, with the TCMH terminal Doppler radar
indicating outbound velocities up to 60 kt in the 0.5-1 kft layer
near and east of Zanesville. Decreasing clouds downstream from the
QLCS over western PA will support further destabilization, allowing
the convective system to continue east through the remainder of the
afternoon. The ILN VWP has shown a steady increase in westerly winds
in the 1-6 km AGL layer since late morning, which will sustain the
ongoing bowing structures and related, organized cold pools. As
such, expect the threat for damaging winds to progressively spread
east across the watch area this afternoon, particularly in the
vicinity of the embedded bows. Around 30 kt of 0-3 km shear oriented
largely perpendicular to the QLCS may support some brief tornado
potential, especially near and north of the apexes of the bows.

Farther south, a separate line segment has evolved over northwest WV
within a similar environment, suggesting a damaging wind risk with
that activity as well.

..Mead.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5MzAFAblAF8RZNtYc1YQzxCJYOm_4C2l5y7xtiTr7hwZUB5uKEDTVvY-Cizkh-Qp_geyx68bF3bggCkZcYcEekNp578$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 38958272 40318219 41108168 41458045 41487939 41037897
40197928 39387963 38638011 38028093 37758123 38058202
38958272

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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