ACUS11 KWNS 170128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170127
ILZ000-MOZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 170127Z - 170300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany
the stronger storms this evening. The severe threat is expected to
be isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually intensifying across
central and eastern MO along remnant outflow boundaries with the
peak of PBL mixing/destabilization. Despite this fact, nocturnal
cooling is underway, with MLCINH on the increase per 01Z
mesoanalysis. Still, residual buoyancy, driven by rich low-level
moisture (i.e. mid 70s F surface dewpoints) yields over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. This parameter space
would support multicells and transient supercells capable of some
damaging gusts and hail. This threat is quite conditional on the
large scale given the aforementioned stabilization underway, though
a locally greater severe threat exists with storms that can anchor
along a boundary that roughly bisects the St. Louis metro.
Nonetheless, given the overall expected sparse nature of the severe
threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_ya7lgk7j1xTJcMMqtqjZ4j40WLfhFRBj1rMaQRCcQmztMAPI6x897xKDj3ag8tpf2N9-R6jXDkVocGEvauvq571FDI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38769202 39209151 39399083 39298961 38848901 38218891
37818910 37608939 37579016 37659092 37769133 37869163
38009189 38769202

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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