ACUS11 KWNS 160713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160713
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern KS and southern NE into northwest
MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160713Z - 160915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts are possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is moving across north-central KS towards
south-central NE early this morning. Relatively strong inbound
velocities (45-55 kt) are noted at 1-2 km AGL from KUEX along the
gust front, though recent measured gusts have generally been
sub-severe. Low-level warm advection and a plume of large PW
(near/above 2 inches) to the north of a front draped across southern
KS may help to sustain this system through at least part of the
overnight, though rather weak mid/upper-level flow, modest effective
shear, and unfavorable low-level lapse rates may tend to keep any
severe-gust threat localized.

Additional storms may continue to develop in advance of the MCS
across northeast KS into northwest MO, within the warm-advection
regime north of the front. The large PW will support localized
downburst potential within this regime as well, though the elevated
nature of the convection and generally modest effective shear are
expected to limit the coverage and magnitude of the threat.

..Dean/Mosier.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!946eKP6za_go5dK8mxSynK7fYv_abshNbx5fZS3TM-hGDFAWv-HA-Ws2yJQlU4JwDaVw3XrZ8vg-Ny72FhAHTdAX8Dw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39889941 40409903 40669840 40629512 40189300 39629254
39279292 39199378 39109646 38999687 38869741 38679794
38669832 39079838 39419856 39889941

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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