ACUS11 KWNS 160123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160123
OHZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...parts of central OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160123Z - 160300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-topped miniature supercell over central OH may
continue for another hour or two this evening. A brief tornado
remains possible. A Watch is currently not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 0120 UTC, the Dayton, OH TDWR and KILN NEXRAD
showed a miniature supercell over Champaign County, OH. This storm
is ongoing within a broader cluster of low-topped convection near a
remnant MCV across central OH. The environment is not particularly
unstable (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), but is very moist, with dewpoints
in the mid 70s F. This is supporting low cloud bases amid enlarged
low-level hodographs ahead of the MCV. SPC mesoanalysis shows ESRH
of 100-200 m2/s2 across central OH which could support occasional
low-level rotation despite much weaker deep-layer shear.

This storm has displayed intermittent low-level mesocyclones and
potentially produced a brief tornado earlier this evening from
public reports. The modestly supportive environment and cellular
storm mode suggest a brief tornado or two will remain possible as
the storm moves eastward over the next couple of hours. However, the
lack of stronger deep-layer shear and weak buoyancy favor only
intermittent intensification. Increasing inhibition is also expected
to slowly diminish the threat later this evening. Given the brief
and localized nature of the threat, a Watch is not anticipated.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8CvR7KYaeibypPn8RsN9K2h-y67oN7asQLgzLNXbeAXtaYqjwQPO4IP31w6IfHCuBPamichXsJETQ0Q0aLOtXlU-1wI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39908358 39948367 40038385 40138395 40328388 40498347
40318269 40168257 39938256 39808272 39808287 39908358

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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