ACUS11 KWNS 152308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152308
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado/Wyoming into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584...

Valid 152308Z - 160115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW584.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms and a few more isolated
supercells continue within WW584. A supercell near Denver had
reports of 64 mph winds and hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter.
Large hail and damaging wind will continue to be possible with
supercells through the early evening, given moderate instability and
35-45 kts of effective shear. With cell interactions, mode is
gradually shifting to become more clustered/multi-cell this evening.
Guidance suggests that one or more clusters may evolve eastward into
western Kansas through the evening.

Downstream across western Kansas, steep low to mid-level lapse
rates, temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s F, and dew points in
the upper 60s to 70s are supporting moderate to strong instability,
though lingering inhibition remains. Should a cluster be able to
organize along a cold pool and shift eastward, damaging wind
potential may increase into the evening. A downstream watch will
probably be needed into western Kansas later this evening.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!54CuDxJS2a03pxpygobjtODVM6mu7DE6T3kVTcGYuuruzp6wzYYFYB_OGv3ejA3OitB-MUoXCpS5jU6T6z5ghVCZDKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON 36910425 37550483 39000497 40280485 42560523 42940498
42990396 43020344 42950284 42410274 40780274 40530261
40120222 40100201 39680174 38940154 38330145 37650138
37050146 36920174 37010218 36950353 36910425

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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