ACUS11 KWNS 152102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152102
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeast IA...north-central and
northeast Missouri...and west-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152102Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe weather may
increase across the area late this afternoon into evening.
Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed along the IA-MO
border, near Centerville, IA along a residual outflow boundary that
extends into west-central IL. A very moist boundary-layer exists in
the vicinity of the surface front with dewpoints into the mid 70s to
lower 80s, which are contributing to MLCAPE of 3000-3500+ J/kg, per
latest objective analysis. Forcing associated with a remnant MCV may
be contributing to the storm development with the current EAX VWP
indicating 30-35 kt of westerly flow in the mid levels, suggestive
of at least modest vertical shear. As such, some potential for
isolated severe weather appears to exist, mainly in the form of
locally damaging wind gusts, should sustained storms persist late
this afternoon into evening.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Nq6rbA82prwTCf87ts1w79qn_OR98rSRdsQ5g8fqG9aEtKO_n8QrMJrh_xf4zfVRWwRcGvup-3tPXW64peeAPU1ZCc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40419332 41019328 41159192 40829093 40359086 39969106
39899165 40189293 40419332

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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