ACUS11 KWNS 152026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152025
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1989
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...the Oklahoma
Panhandle...and southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152025Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly severe wind
gusts, potentially up to 70-80 mph, is expected to increase across
the discussion area late this afternoon into evening. An additional
watch is possible to the east/southeast of the recently issued
severe thunderstorm watch 584 in effect across southeast Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and adjacent Raton Mesa with a deepening cumulus field
noted along a warm front from southwest KS into the OK and TX
Panhandles. The 18Z DDC and AMA soundings modified for current
surface conditions exhibit steep environmental lapse rates
(especially in the low levels) with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
Continued daytime heating should allow for further air mass
destabilization with the strongest instability forecast north of the
front from far southeast CO into southwest KS.

Latest CAM guidance suggests the storms developing along the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains will gradually grow upscale into one or multiple
clusters later this afternoon into evening while moving/developing
east into the High Plains. The recently issued severe thunderstorm
watch 584 accounts for the large hail and severe wind gust potential
with that regime. Additional storms will also be possible along the
surface boundary from the northern TX into OK Panhandles and
southwest KS, with some model signal for the separate regimes to
merge across southwest KS this evening. Severe wind gusts,
potentially up to 70-80 mph, appear to be the primary hazard with
the latter regime, and convective trends are being monitored for an
additional severe thunderstorm watch.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LJJL9d4ABo-uJpE2UX8LoYRTlWR-YWJvO_7IHthzjY02zYeYAVf0S3ifXFMvbQe3pFNzGan9mgIUATt4YxxWgehcJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36960469 37880474 38370384 38200186 38200122 38129996
37479956 36959991 36690083 36550182 36520296 36530373
36700457 36960469

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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