ACUS11 KWNS 151929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151928
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado into far
southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151928Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon into
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and lightning data indicate thunderstorms developing over the central Rockies, including the CO
Front Range, with additional storms noted over central into
northeast WY, and the far northwest NE Panhandle. More widespread
cloud cover has slowed daytime heating across portions of the
adjacent High Plains, where latest objective analysis indicates
lingering convective inhibition. However, continued daytime heating
should allow the cap to weaken, thereby allowing storms to advance
into the High Plains, amidst a steep lapse rate environment
featuring MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. When coupled with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, the setup will support multicell and some
supercell storm modes capable of mainly large hail initially. Latest
CAM guidance continues to suggest that storms will grow upscale into
clusters this evening with an associated increase in severe wind
gust potential.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0ArlcUXwAt4SFnZWstLnNd7KGp4zK0wK2pVn1BhQBTnKq991fmRyyZbLCVcUUVAAvsmwKp34yeg8kJJvSpaCfsfCSI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39230558 41060562 43250564 43430501 43280389 42600341
42220297 40760240 39940260 39500307 39300380 39180462
39230558

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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