ACUS11 KWNS 151808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151808
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-152015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...southwest Ohio into northeast Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151808Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm potential appears to be increasing
across the area. Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Renewed thunderstorm development is underway along the
southern flank of a recently decayed nocturnal MCS from south of
Wilmington to the Cincinnati vicinity. Stronger heating along the
southern periphery of the residual cloud canopy has allowed
temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s, which, coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 70s, is yielding MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg.
Stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear remain displaced to
the northwest of the area, in closer proximity to an MCV over
northwest IN, leading to uncertainty in the extent of the severe
storm threat in the near term. However, the character of the
thermodynamic environment suggests some potential for locally
damaging wind gusts with the current storms this afternoon over the
next 1-2 hours.

A comparatively greater severe storm risk may materialize later this
afternoon into evening with the arrival of the stronger forcing for
ascent and vertical shear. Between now and then, convective trends
are being monitored for signs of storm organization, which would
warrant consideration of a watch issuance.

..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aMgYFVXI-4fp8bi1I6kI2h182Cd9Tf0bDnk5-_bOSwK35pwbm3MrtgWGFhYSHRZ2LzWHiWYy1nUWsLLgsgRfuQbKNY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38898514 39228461 39548392 39648354 39628300 39368276
38938272 38588311 38438360 38428443 38558511 38898514

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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